CCI Nuts Market Update: Pistachios

The 2025-2026 pistachio season is unfolding with sharp contrasts across the US, Türkiye, and Iran. Each origin is entering the year with its own set of challenges, advantages, and market dynamics—shaping a complex global picture for buyers, processors, and traders.

IRI: Smaller Crop, Quality Issues, and Slow Export Start

Local Pistachio Association (IPA) now estimates the 2025 crop at 225,000 tons, slightly below spring expectations due to smaller nut size and higher blank rates. Including carry-over, the country opened the season with roughly 240,000 tons of inventory.

Yet exports in the first month reached only 19,000 MT in in-shell equivalent amounts, which is considered low for such a sizeable inventory. Exporters have been cautious, with trade slowed by:

• local regulatory complications,

• exchange-rate volatility, and

• expectations of further x depreciation.

This has kept in-shell supply tight, even though physical inventory exists. Meanwhile, the unusually small nut size means more of the crop is being processed into kernels, which are expected to move faster as the season progresses. Kernel demand remains strong, and shipments are likely to accelerate once processing catches up.

Türkiye: Price Surge Driven by Hoarding and Speculation, Not Production Loss

Türkiye is facing some of the highest pistachio prices in its history, yet the cause is not primarily the crop itself. While 2025 is an OFF-year, Turkey still has significant stock carried over from last year’s record 415,500 mt crop, enough to cover several years of domestic demand.

Industry leaders argue that middlemen and stockholders have been withholding supply to push prices higher. Kernel prices used in baklava have jumped more than 200% year-on-year, with further sharp increases seen just in the past month.

As a result, the Turkish government has taken the unusual step of approving pistachio imports from Iran, the U.S., and Syria to stabilize the domestic market. Prices have at least stopped rising, but they remain extremely elevated. Export performance has suffered: recent monthly exports have fallen sharply compared to last year, although total shipments for the year are only slightly below 2024 levels.

Crop expectations for 2025 vary widely. INC estimates around 143,000 mt, while some local sources suggest available supply closer to 380,000 mt when stock is included. Regardless of the true figure, the market remains dominated by speculation.

USA: Big Crop, Strong Exports, and New Market Push

California enters the season from a position of strength. Harvest results align with estimates of 1.5–1.55 billion lbs, and quality is reported to be very good. With the new crop plus carry-over, the U.S. now has more than 628,000 mt of pistachios available, significantly more than in the previous year.

Exports began the season on a strong note, rising nearly 28% year-on-year in the first month. Growth has come from a range of markets:

• Europe (especially Germany, Spain, and Italy),

• SouthEast Asia, and

• the Middle East.

Domestic shipments softened slightly, but California suppliers are pushing deeper into new consumer markets, Mexico and Brazil in particular, where pistachio flavor is booming in snacks and premium desserts.

Despite high inventories, prices have held up so far, supported by steady demand and cautious optimism from growers.