CCI Nuts Market Update: Macadamia and Hazelnuts

Macadamia. The Australian Macadamia Society has released its final update on the 2025 season, confirming a national crop of 46,940 metric tonnes at 10% moisture (43,800 tonnes in-shell at 3.5%). The result lands just above the revised July forecast, despite months of severe weather that hampered access to orchards, damaged crops, and pushed harvest into September and October for some growers. AMS CEO Hamilton-Bate noted that while the season has been one of the toughest in over a decade, the final numbers highlight the resilience and determination of growers and processors across all regions.

New South Wales and Queensland reported their lowest volumes in more than ten years, underscoring how challenging the season has been. Yet Bundaberg (QLD) emerged as a bright spot, delivering its largest macadamia crop on record, close to 30,000 metric tonnes, thanks to younger orchards now reaching strong production levels. The national total reflects factory receipts from Australian Macadamia Handlers Association members, who collectively account for around 90% of Australia's macs output.

Looking ahead, the industry is turning cautiously optimistic for 2026. Early signs are encouraging, with favourable growing conditions, strong flowering across most regions, and promising early nut set. With inventory levels low and global demand remaining firm, growers are focused on rebuilding from a difficult year and delivering premium Australian macs to international markets in the season ahead. Hazelnuts. With the quieter winter period approaching, the hazelnut sector is shifting its focus toward January, when the largest global hazel buyer’s, Ferrero Group, next purchasing decisions are expected to heavily influence the market. Conditions for the 2026 Turkish hazel crop are not encouraging, with low rainfall and unusually high temperatures leaving orchards without the chilling period the shrubs need. Meanwhile, Turkish supplies remain tight: high-quality hazelnuts are difficult to obtain, and many growers & intermediaries continue to hold back stock in anticipation of higher prices. Social media pressure on the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) to lift its purchase price closer to the TRY 310/kg (~US$7.30/kg) offered by Ferrero Group last month is adding to the uncertainty.

Price speculation continues to dominate sentiment. Although farmers expect firmer values, in-shell prices have actually softened slightly in recent weeks, easing by around 2%. Base-quality hazelnuts are trading at around TRY 280/kg, with high-kernel % yield lots reaching around TRY 300/kg due to scarcity, while certain districts like Sakaria are seeing significantly lower levels in the TRY 225–270/kg range. Market activity is expected to remain subdued through December, with buyers and sellers waiting for clearer signals from Ferrero Group’s January purchasing and from early indicators of the 2026 crop’s potential.

Export dynamics have shifted sharply, placing Turkish suppliers in an uncomfortable position. Despite record EU spending on hazelnut imports, Turkey’s share has dropped dramatically as European buyers turn to more competitively priced origins such as Chile and USA. In the first two months of the new season, Turkey accounted for about 14% of EU hazelnut import volumes, while Chile captured an astonishing 70%. Even though Ferrero Group reportedly secured around 50,000 mt of in-shell hazelnuts, well above its regulatory commitment. This buying has not translated into stronger demand from other EU buyers, who remain focused on short-term needs and alternative suppliers.

Exports from Turkey have fallen to near-historic lows, reflecting the combined pressure of reduced production, high inflation, rising costs, and tightening credit. The Turkish Black Sea Hazelnut Exporters’ Association recently revised its 2025 crop estimate down to 518,000 mt due to drought, a significant drop from the earlier 601,000 mt forecast. With only 43,000 mt exported so far this season, less than half of last year’s volume, expectations are that total exports may slump to just 70,000 mt by the end of 2025. As traders, growers, and exporters grapple with this new reality, all eyes are on January’s market movements and the weather conditions that will shape the next crop. Please contact us in Singapore for your tree nuts requirements, including specially processed and packed macadamia nuts, including custom-size macadamia kernel wholes and pieces.

1 USD ~ 42.5 Turkish Lira 1 USD ~ 1.50 AUD