Ecuador Cocoa Beans: How a Latin American Country Is Reshaping the Global Chocolate Market

For decades, the global cocoa story has centered on West Africa. Ivory Coast and Ghana, responsible for roughly 60% of the world’s supply, have dominated the conversation around chocolate’s most essential ingredient. But markets evolve, climates shift, and as the old commodities adage goes: the cure for high prices is high prices.

And over the past two years, cocoa prices have soared high enough to trigger dramatic change.

A Global Cocoa Crunch Creates Opportunity

Beginning in 2023, the cocoa market entered its most turbulent period in a generation. A combination of extreme weather, crop diseases such as swollen shoot virus, structural pressures on farmers, and financial speculation pushed prices to historic heights. Futures broke records above $12,000 per ton, more than doubling within a year.

This price shock rattled supply chains, but it also created an unexpected bright spot: Latin America, with Ecuador in the lead.

Ecuador’s Rise: From Regional Player to Global Powerhouse

Ecuador has steadily built a stronger cocoa industry for years. Today, those investments have placed the country on the brink of a historic shift in global rankings. According to Anecacao chairman Iván Ontaneda, the country is on track to produce more than 650,000 metric tons of cocoa in the 2026/27 season, enough to surpass Ghana and become the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.

This is not a temporary spike. Ecuador’s long-term trajectory is even more ambitious:

·       More than 570,000 tons expected in 2025/26

·       More than 650,000 tons forecast for 2026/27

·       Around 800,000 tons targeted by 2030

High prices have reshaped farmer incentives. With cocoa trading at exceptional levels, Ecuadorian farmers, who receive about 90% of the world market price, have been able to reinvest profits into their farms. In contrast, farmers in West Africa typically capture only 60-70% of the world price.

As a result, Ecuador’s farmers are better positioned to scale production when global markets boom.

Agroforestry: A Model Built for Resilience

Unlike the monoculture systems common in West Africa, Ecuador grows cocoa in biodiverse agroforestry systems. Cocoa trees share space with plantains, high-canopy shade species, coffee, and fruit crops.

This approach offers several advantages:

·       Greater resilience to crop disease

·       Improved soil health

·       Natural shade and moisture management in a warming climate

·       Additional income streams for farmers

These systems support consistently high yields, currently around 800 kilograms per hectare. By comparison, average yields in West Africa are just under 500 kilograms per hectare.

In a world where climate volatility increasingly threatens agriculture, Ecuador’s diversified model provides a template for long-term sustainability.

A Billion-Dollar Boom for Ecuadorian Farmers

As global supply constraints pushed prices upward, Ecuadorian farmers benefited significantly. Many growers who once focused on bananas, historically the country’s top agricultural export, shifted into cocoa. Their timing could not have been better.

Cocoa has now become a billion-dollar industry, rivaling some of Ecuador’s largest commodity sectors, including gold, copper, and bananas.

By October 2025, Ecuador’s cocoa exports had already risen 33 percent year over year to 462,351 tons. Anecacao expects total 2025 exports to exceed 570,000 tons, rising further to more than 623,000 tons in 2026.

A Changing Global Market: Prices Retreat but Remain Elevated

As supply rebounds, particularly from South America, extreme price pressure is beginning to ease. The 2024/25 season ended with the first global surplus since 2020/21, and another, larger surplus is expected in 2025/26.

London cocoa futures have fallen nearly 60 percent from their peak, although prices are still significantly above the 2018–2022 average.

Ecuador is a major driver of this rebalancing. ING Research forecasts Ecuador’s 2025/26 output at 580,000 tons, an increase of about 4 percent from the previous year and part of a broader upward trend.

Even so, the market remains structurally tighter and more expensive than before the 2023 shock. Demand is beginning to soften in some regions, but supply risks persist in West Africa.

The Big Picture: Ecuador Is Reshaping the Future of Chocolate

Cocoa’s center of gravity is slowly shifting. Ivory Coast remains the undisputed leader, but Ecuador’s growth is rewriting supply chains and altering how chocolate companies plan, source, and invest.

Ecuador offers:

·       Higher farm-gate prices

·       More resilient agroforestry systems

·       Rapid yield improvements

·       Expanding planted area

·       Strong coordination between the public and private sectors

In a world where sustainability and climate resilience matter more than ever, this combination is powerful.

As West Africa battles diseases, land pressures, and unpredictable weather, Ecuador is providing a model for how modern cocoa production can adapt and thrive.

The global chocolate industry is entering a new era. At the center stands a country once known mainly for fine-flavor Arriba cocoa but now emerging as one of the world’s most important production powerhouses.

Ecuador is not just filling the world’s cocoa gap. It is redefining the future of cocoa itself.