Australia’s Almond Supercycle: Why the Next 5–10 Years Could Be Monumental

And Why Select Harvests Limited (SHV) and Olam Australia (Olam Orchards Australia Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 442 532) Are Poised to Lead It. Australia’s almond industry is entering what may be its most transformative era in history. Global supply is tightening, Asian demand is accelerating, export economics have shifted in Australia’s favour, and a nationwide orchard renewal program is underway.

All indicators point to multi-year expansion. The two companies best positioned to benefit are Select Harvests (SHV), the ASX-listed pure-play almond producer, and Singapore-listed Olam Group's (VC2) Olam Australia (ofi almonds), one of the largest almond orchard operators in the country.

This analysis blends Select Harvests’ financial disclosures, Olam’s reported impacts, Australian Almond Board data, Rabobank’s latest industry report by Pia Piggott, and detailed kernel yield modelling.

This is the complete picture of the unfolding almond supercycle.

2023: A Brutal Low Point, But Not a Structural Decline

The 2023 season was one of the worst in Australian almond history.

• National kernel production fell 25% • SHV’s kernel output dropped 39% • Olam’s almond yields fell 35 to 40% resulting in a one-off write-down of about A$126 to A$132 million in 2023 • Extreme La Niña weather brought cold spring conditions, excessive rainfall, and poor pollination

The damage was national and indiscriminate.

However, both industry bodies and Rabobank identified 2023 as an anomaly caused by unique weather events rather than a shift in long-term production capability. Yields were expected to recover from 2024 onward, which is exactly what occurred.

2024–2025: Recovery, Rebound and Higher Prices

As weather and pollination conditions normalised, almond yields surged.

• The 2024 crop recovered by approximately 59% from the 2023 low • Global almond prices increased, stabilising in Australia around A$10 to A$12 per kg • Export demand grew rapidly, particularly from China.

Select Harvests’ reported results and Olam’s estimated financial results clearly reflect this trend.

Select Harvests (SHV) Reported Financial Performance

Year	Kernel MT	Revenue (A$m)	Almond Price (A$/kg)	Operating Cashflow (A$m)
2022	8,494	266	approx. 6.6	+15
2023	5,140	205	6.42	-20
2024	8,563	294	10.18	+10
2025	5,977	398	approx. 12.0	+119

Even with a smaller crop in 2025, SHV’s revenue rose 35 percent above 2024.Operating cashflow of A$119 million was one of the highest in company history.

China and India Have Become the Growth Engine

China’s retaliatory tariffs on US almonds dramatically shifted global almond trade dynamics.

• Australia’s almond export value to China reached approximately A$700 million • Export volumes rose 76 percent year over year • Australia became the preferred origin for Chinese almond buyers

Olam, with its large export footprint and direct exposure to Asian markets, is a major beneficiary of this shift.

Rabobank’s Long-Term Outlook: A Structural Growth Cycle Through 2030

Rabobank’s 2025 report, Australian Almond Outlook: Replanting for Growth Beyond 2030, outlines a multi-year structural growth story for Australia.

1. Large-Scale Orchard Replanting

• About 10,000 hectares planted between 2001 and 2005 are being replaced • Another 13,000 hectares planted between 2006 and 2010 are due for renewal in the next five years • Replanting replaces aging low-yielding trees with modern, higher-efficiency varieties

2. New Plantings Are Expanding Again

• 2,634 new hectares were planted in 2024 • Total almond area is expected to reach 71,000 to 76,000 hectares by 2030.

3. National Kernel Production Will Climb

• Rabobank forecasts approximately 200,000 tonnes (kernel weight equivalent) of annual production by 2030 • This compares to about 155,697 tonnes in 2025

4. Global Dynamics Favour Australia

• California, which produces about 80 percent of global supply, is constrained by water restrictions • Little room exists for major global expansions outside Australia • Almonds align with growing global health and nutrition trends • Water economics in the southern Murray–Darling Basin remain favourable compared to California

Rabobank’s conclusion is clear: Australia is entering a long-term growth cycle supported by structural supply and demand dynamics.

SHV and Olam: The Two Clear Winners

Select Harvests (SHV)

• Pure-play almond exposure • Strong recovery in pricing and cashflow • 2025 operating cashflow of A$119 million indicates substantial financial resilience • Well positioned for further upside as new orchard replantings mature

Olam Australia (ofi almonds)

Olam Group ofi is one of the largest almond processors globally, with operations in both Australian and California. Olam operates one of the largest almond orchard footprints in Australia. Its scale means earnings expand rapidly when yields and prices improve.

Estimated Olam Almond Results (Using Market Price of A$12 per kg in 2025)

Year	Kernel MT (est.)	Revenue (A$m, est.)	Almond Price	Operating Cashflow (A$m, est.)
2022	10,400 to 13,900	325 to 434	approx. 6.6	+18 to +24
2023	4,650 to 6,700	186 to 268	approx. 6.4	-18 to -26
2024	11,500 to 16,300	396 to 560	approx. 10.2	+13 to +19
2025	11,700 to 15,600	777 to 1,036	approx. 12.0	+232 to +310

Olam’s 2025 results indicate a potential return to one of the strongest operating cashflow positions in its Australian history.

Why the Next 5–10 Years Look Bullish

1. Almond prices are rising for the third consecutive year

2. China has become the largest growth driver for Australian almonds

3. The Australian national orchard renewal will lift yields significantly from 2027 onward

4. California’s production has peaked and is flattening due to water limits

5. SHV and Olam have emerged from 2023 with stronger balance sheets and rising margins
   

The Big Picture: A Supercycle Is Forming

With almond prices near A$12 per kg, record export demand from Asia, a complete national orchard upgrade underway, tightening global supply, younger high-yielding orchards coming online, and strengthening financials across the sector, Australia is entering a long-term structural expansion phase.

This is not merely a rebound from 2023.This is the beginning of a multi-year transformation of Australia’s almond industry into a globally competitive, high-margin agricultural powerhouse.

Select Harvests Limited and Olam Australia sit at the center of this transformation, and both appear positioned to capture the majority of the value created over the next decade. Aussie almonds achieving “unprecedented” sales levels By Kim Berry. There were three almond companies in the annual Top 100 companies report - Australia's Top 100 Food & Drink Companies 2025: Olam Orchards (#69), Almondco Australia (#81), and Select Harvests (#87).