CCI Nuts Market Update: Pistachio nuts

Pistachios in the Crossfire: War, Weather and a Fragile Ceasefire. Pistachios have become one of 2026's most geopolitically sensitive commodities, caught between tight harvests and a war that keeps reigniting.

Türkiye: Cautious, Not Panicked

In pistachio-growing region of GaziAntep, June's mood shifted from May's focus on scarce supply toward the outlook for the 2026 crop: flowering, irrigation and kernel fill are now the numbers traders watch. European buyers stayed active but more price-sensitive, and exporters avoided locking in forward sales given uncertain replacement cost. A better harvest than 2025's weak one is expected, but nobody's sure it'll be enough to rebuild stocks. Prices held near historic highs on tight physical supply, with green kernel (boz iç) steady at about 2,000 TRY/kg and export-grade green kernels the tightest segment. July's crop assessments will be the next real catalyst.

California Pistachio's War Dividend

In California's San Joaquin Valley, growers who switched from dairy to pistachios cashed in as U.S. prices hit $5.30/lb in May — a decade high, driven largely by the Iran conflict.

The Iran Factor

Three forces pushed global pistachio prices to an eight-year high: weak, drought-hit 2025 harvests across Iran, the U.S. and Turkey; a 12-day Iran-Israel-U.S. war in June 2025; and a larger conflict from February 28, 2026 that choked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Iranian pistachio exports via Bandar Abbas. An April 8 ceasefire brought only partial relief — vessel traffic stayed thin and attacks continued.

That calm broke again: after weeks under a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the U.S. struck over 80 targets in Iran on July 7 and reimposed oil sanctions, Iran was reported retaliating against U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, and by July 10 large-vessel traffic through the Strait had effectively stopped. Every time that route closes, Iranian exporters lose access to key markets and buyers elsewhere (mainly Türkiye, and the U.S.) pick up demand at higher prices.

CCI APAC Singapore supplies both shelled kernels and in-shell pistachio nuts, as per customer specs.

Plus a Viral Chocolate Bar

The "Dubai chocolate" trend, built on pistachio cream, has kept adding demand-side pressure since going viral in late 2023.

What to Watch

• Turkey's July crop assessments — first real read on 2026 yields

• Strait of Hormuz traffic — truce or prolonged disruption?

• A possible Hormuz toll system — floated by Iran and Oman, which would reshape shipping costs long-term

Tight Turkish supply, a war that won't stay settled, and unrelenting chocolate demand mean pistachios are likely to stay expensive. 1 USD ~ 47 TRY 1 USD ~ 179,700 Toman 1 Euro ~ 1.14 USD 1 USD ~ 162 JPY