INC Macao Nuts Update: Hazelnuts & Pistachios

Pistachios The global pistachio market is expected to face a much tighter supply situation during the 2026-2027 season, with worldwide production forecast to drop to approximately 700,000 metric tonnes. This would represent a sharp 36% decline from the previous season and mark one of the weakest global crops seen in recent years.

The anticipated slowdown is mainly linked to significantly lower harvest in both the United States and Iran. Both countries are entering weaker off-year harvest cycles, while ongoing drought conditions are also weighing heavily on yields. USA pistachio production is projected to decline by more than half following last season’s record crop, while Iranian pistachio output may fall by over 40%.

Türkiye is expected to post a stronger harvest as it moves into an “on-year” production cycle. However, even with Türkiye’s recovery, overall global supply is still expected to remain well below prevailing demand levels. As a result, market sentiment continues to point toward firmer pistachio pricing in the months ahead, particularly for kernels and processed grades.

Prices in Europe have already started strengthening, especially for US-origin whole kernels and industrial products, as nearby availability tightens.

In terms of trade flows, US export shipments slowed during April 2026, with monthly export volumes reaching multi-year lows despite strong cumulative demand for the season. Vietnam has now emerged as the leading export destination for US pistachios, overtaking China, while exports to Hong Kong have risen sharply amid ongoing adjustments in Asian supply chains.

Demand across Europe also remains healthy. Germany continues to lead as the largest European buyer, while Italy and Spain have both recorded strong growth in imports. Shipments to the Middle East and Africa are also substantially higher compared with last year, although export momentum moderated during April across most regions.

Even with softer monthly export activity, total US pistachio shipments for the current marketing year remain comfortably above last season’s levels, underlining resilient global demand despite an increasingly constrained supply outlook. Hazelnuts The Turkish hazelnut market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as the largest buyer returned to the market last week with fresh purchasing activity, while disagreements over crop forecasts and pricing continue to dominate industry discussions.

Ferrero Group's latest buying programme reportedly faced limited success, with sellers reluctant to offer large volumes due to both quality concerns and dissatisfaction with current bid prices. Market participants note that supplies of high-quality kernels remain tight, making it difficult for suppliers to meet the confectionery giant’s purchasing specifications. Prices offered for premium Giresun hazelnuts were generally viewed as being close to prevailing market levels, but many suppliers still considered them unattractive. Current prices for Turkish hazelnuts are ranging roughly between TRY 205-230/kg depending on quality and size.

Attention is also focused on this season’s Turkish crop outlook, following the presentation of an 809,000 mt production estimate at the recent INC in Macao. However, not all market participants agree with this figure, with some private estimates reportedly closer to 600,000 mt. Final crop potential will depend heavily on harvest conditions over the coming months.

Although global hazelnut production is expected to recover strongly this year after last season’s frost-affected crop, there remains significant uncertainty surrounding pricing direction. Many exporters believe buyers are increasingly uncomfortable with elevated hazelnut prices and may continue shifting part of their demand towards alternative nuts and ingredients.

At the same time, expectations for higher domestic agricultural support prices in Türkiye are adding to market nervousness. Traders believe recent increases in Turkish tea procurement prices may signal stronger hazelnut support pricing ahead, potentially lifting opening-season hazelnut prices substantially above current market levels.

Recent lower hazelnut prices have encouraged some short-term buying interest from European importers, with export activity temporarily improving compared with the same period last year. However, export momentum is expected to slow in the near term due to the upcoming Bayram holiday period in Türkiye.

Hazelnut prices have fallen sharply over recent months, with current market levels now sitting near seasonal lows. Industry participants highlight that the decline has occurred despite ongoing inflationary pressures, rising labor costs, and elevated energy expenses within Türkiye. The Turkish Central Bank has also revised higher its inflation expectations for year-end, reflecting continued macroeconomic pressures across the country.

Looking ahead, market participants expect further volatility as new crop quotations continue to emerge and negotiations between buyers and exporters intensify ahead of the main hazel harvest season. 1 USD ~ 45.6 TRY 1 Euro ~ 1.16 USD

CCI APAC Nuts Singapore supplies tree nuts and dried fruits, including the in-shell pistachios and kernels.