CCI Nuts Market Update: Macadamia

The global macadamia trade is entering a period of transition. After starting 2026 on firm footing, the market is now bracing for a wave of new supply. And the big question is whether consumption, especially in China, will be able to absorb it.

From tight supply to a turning point

The year opened with steady prices, largely a hangover from 2025's disappointing harvests in South Africa and Australia, which left stockpiles thin and whole kernels particularly scarce. Steady demand against that limited supply kept the market calm through the first several months of the year.

That calm is now giving way to change. As the 2026 harvest gets underway across the major growing regions, supply is expected to climb sharply over the next two to three months. Whether demand — particularly China's appetite for macadamias — can keep pace with that growth is the open question shaping trader sentiment right now.

RSA: a much bigger crop, but rain-soaked

South Africa is on track for a substantially larger 2026 harvest, with estimates in the 93,000–95,000 metric ton range for in-shell nuts. But heavy, persistent rain in the country's growing regions is complicating harvesting, processing, and quality control.

On the demand side, South Africa just got a meaningful tailwind: China has scrapped its import duty on RSA in-shell macadamias and kernels entirely (down from what had been a 12% tariff). That policy shift is expected to sharpen Chinese buying interest and could meaningfully boost trade flows between the two countries.

Kenya: a policy standoff still unresolved

Kenya's outlook has also improved, with good rainfall supporting nut development and harvesting starting to ramp up in some regions. But the country's long-running export ban on raw, in-shell macadamias — put in place to push more processing to happen domestically — remains a sticking point.

Growers have been pressing the government to ease that restriction. At a recent industry meeting, cooperative leaders described a backlog of unsold nuts sitting in warehouses and on farms, largely because local processing capacity can't keep up. Proposed fixes on the table include government-backed financing so cooperatives can pay growers up front, and a temporary suspension — floated at around six months — of the raw-export ban to help clear the glut. Industry officials have acknowledged the strain and say they're exploring ways to improve both financing and processing capacity, though they've also flagged a real risk: nuts sitting too long in storage can spoil, which would hurt growers and processors alike. How (and whether) Kenya adjusts its export policy could directly affect kernel availability in the weeks ahead.

Australia: growth on two fronts

Australia is also expecting a considerably larger crop in 2026 (an estimated 56,000–58,000 metric tons of in-shell nuts) thanks to stronger flowering and a maturing base of orchards. Early reports on nut development are encouraging, though the final outcome still hinges on weather through harvest.

Farmgate prices are holding roughly steady with last year, buoyed by continued strong demand for Australian kernels, even as a weaker US dollar against the Australian dollar squeezes export pricing.

The bigger story in Australia may be structural: the industry keeps expanding. Plantings now cover nearly 47,700 hectares and more than 15 million trees — up over 2,200 hectares (about 5 per cent) from last year, and roughly double the acreage of a decade ago. Around 81% of that land is already mature enough to bear fruit, with the remaining younger plantings set to add further production down the line. Bundaberg, QLD remains the country's dominant growing region, accounting for close to half of all acreage and posting the largest single increase in plantings. Queensland overall holds about two-thirds of Australia's macadamia land, with NSW making up the rest — and even within regions like Northern Rivers, expansion (over 400 new hectares) is happening alongside clearing of older plantations (nearly 500 hectares).

Europe is buying more, and paying more for it

Demand data out of Europe underscores how much the trade has grown. In the first five months of 2026, EU imports of shelled and in-shell macadamias jumped by more than half compared with the same period last year, reaching just under 4,000 mt.

South Africa stayed the EU's top supplier, up nearly a quarter year-on-year. But Kenya was the standout: its shipments to Europe nearly tripled, vaulting it into second place ahead of Australia. Smaller suppliers Vietnam and China posted even sharper percentage gains, albeit off a much smaller base.

The Netherlands remained the EU's largest buyer, with Germany and Spain also increasing purchases significantly. Interestingly, the average import price actually dipped slightly, but the sheer jump in volume meant total import value still rose by more than 50 per cent, crossing the 42 euro million mark.

CCI APAC Singapore supplies customized raw and roasted macadamia as per customer requirements.

What to watch

Putting it together: this is a market shifting from scarcity to abundance. Near-term prices should stay supported by thin carryover stocks, but as fresh harvest volumes hit the market, especially lower-grade kernels, a gradual softening looks likely. The real swing factors to watch are Kenya's export policy decision, the pace of Chinese buying following its tariff cut, and how weather treats the tail end of harvest season in South Africa and Australia. For now, indicative Kenyan kernel pricing (2025 crop, FCA Netherlands) still ranges from about €6.00/kg for lower grades up to 12 euros per kg for top-style whole kernels.