CCI Nuts Market Update: Macadamia

China’s Rise, Kenya’s Quality Reset, and What It Means for Global Trade

The global macadamia market is entering a new phase. Supply is expanding rapidly, demand remains resilient but price-sensitive, and quality, certification, and origin are becoming decisive factors in trade negotiations. Recent developments in China, Kenya, and Europe highlight how the competitive landscape is shifting for growers, exporters, and traders.

China: From Importer to Power Producer

China has quietly become one of the most influential players in the global macadamia market.

Over the past six years, Chinese macadamia production has grown at an average rate of 25% per year, driven primarily by large-scale planting in Yunnan province. Government subsidies, access to fertilisers and irrigation, and structured farmer training programs have accelerated yields and orchard maturity.

China’s share of global macadamia supply has risen from around 3% in 2016 to over 20% today, and production is expected to reach approximately 91,000 tonnes (in shell) by 2025–2026, a year-on-year increase of roughly 30%. At this pace, China is positioning itself to overtake South Africa, currently the world’s largest producer.

However, China remains a major consumer. Macadamias are still perceived as a premium, gift-worthy nut, particularly during festive seasons. The key change is strategic: rising domestic supply is expected to reduce import dependence and strengthen China’s negotiating leverage with traditional suppliers, especially South Africa, which currently accounts for roughly half of China’s macadamia imports.

For exporters, this means China will increasingly behave less like a price-taker and more like a price-setter, particularly during years of global oversupply.

Kenya: Protecting Premium Position Through Quality Control

While China scales volume, Kenya is doubling down on quality.

Kenya, the world’s 3rd-largest macadamia producer, recently reopened its harvesting and export window after a seasonal closure imposed by the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA). The ban, which began on December 1, was introduced after phenological surveys showed that a significant portion of the crop was being harvested prematurely.

The objective was clear: protect kernel quality, oil content, shelf life, and Kenya’s reputation in premium international markets.

Following month-long surveillance across major producing counties, AFA determined that nuts in lower-altitude, coffee-growing zones had reached physiological maturity, while those in higher-altitude, tea-growing zones remained largely immature. The reopening of harvesting and trading from 1 February 2026 reflects a targeted, data-driven approach rather than a blanket release.

For international buyers, this is a positive signal. Kenya is reinforcing its position as a quality-focused origin, which matters increasingly as global supply expands and prices soften.

Europe: Stable Demand, Falling Prices, Higher Standards

Europe remains the largest global importer of macadamia kernels, accounting for around 30% of global imports. In 2024, European imports reached approximately 13,000 tonnes, valued at about €106 million.

While volumes continue to grow, import values have declined, indicating falling average prices. Macadamias remain the most expensive nut in Europe—often twice the price of cashews and five to six times the price of peanuts—but oversupply is expected to make them more accessible over time.

Demand dynamics in Europe are nuanced:

• Snack consumption dominates (roasted, salted, and increasingly unsalted).

• Use as a food ingredient is expanding, particularly in ice cream, bakery, cereals, and protein bars.

• Macadamia oil continues to grow as a niche product in both food and cosmetics.

Crucially, Europe only buys safe, certified, and traceable macadamias. Compliance with contaminant limits, audit requirements, and sustainability standards is no longer optional. Buyers increasingly prefer suppliers who can offer:

• Recognised certifications (organic, sustainability schemes)

• Clear origin traceability

• Consistent volumes and dependable logistics

Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, France, the UK, and Switzerland remain the most attractive markets, with Germany acting as both the largest consumer and a major re-export hub.

What This Means for Traders

Several clear implications emerge:

1. China’s expansion will cap upside prices As China increases self-sufficiency, global prices are likely to face downward pressure during peak supply years.

2. Quality differentiation matters more than volume Origins like Kenya that enforce maturity controls and quality standards are better positioned to defend margins, especially in Europe.

3. Certification is now a commercial requirement In Europe, sustainability, traceability, and food safety credentials are essential for market access, not just premium niches.

4. Volatility will persist Climate change, crop variability, and shifting trade flows mean year-to-year volatility in volumes and prices will continue.

5. The opportunity is still there Despite recent softness, European demand is expected to grow at 3–5% annually over the next five years, particularly as prices ease and consumer awareness improves.