CCI Nuts Market Update: Macadamia

The global macadamia industry is heading into 2026 with a mix of optimism and caution. While Australia is forecasting a strong recovery after a difficult season, South Africa is navigating global trade uncertainty and strong RAND currency pressures. Together, these two powerhouse producers are shaping the outlook for the international macadamia market. Australia: A Strong Comeback in 2026

Australia, the birthplace of the commercial macadamia industry, is forecasting a significant rebound for the 2026 season.

According to a climate-based forecast developed by the QLD Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, the 2026 Australian macadamia crop is predicted to reach:

• 59,080 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture

• 63,350 tonnes in-shell at 10% moisture

This marks a substantial ~35% recovery from the 43,800 tonnes recorded in 2025, one of the most challenging seasons on record due to severe weather impacts across production regions.

Encouraging Early Indicators

AMS CEO Clare Hamilton-Bate reports strong flowering and good cross-pollination conditions across many orchards. Nut set has generally exceeded early expectations, and favorable weather has supported crop retention.

While 2026 is not shaping up to be a “bumper” year, it represents a steady and meaningful recovery.

A key contributor to this growth is the maturation of younger orchards. Large-scale plantings between 2019 and 2022 are now entering full production, adding momentum to national output. In several regions, these younger trees are demonstrating resilience under variable climate conditions.

Weather Still a Critical Factor

Despite the positive outlook, production remains highly sensitive to climate conditions. The forecast assumes no major late-summer or early-autumn cyclones. With harvest only just beginning, the final outcome will depend heavily on seasonal stability in the months ahead.

A mid-season crop update is expected in May/June 2026, with final figures confirmed in December.

South Africa: Navigating Trade and Currency Headwinds

In contrast to Australia’s production-driven optimism, South Africa’s 2026 season is shaped largely by global trade and currency dynamics.

Macadamias South Africa (SAMAC) forecasts a 2026 crop of 81,660 mt (dry nuts, in-shell). While substantial, the industry considers it unlikely that production will surpass the 90,000 mt mark this year.

US Trade Uncertainty Weighs on Market

Ongoing changes to US import tariff policies have created instability for exporters.

Initially, there was hope for an extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) preferential agreement. However, this was followed by the announcement of a 15% flat tariff, later reduced to 10%. These rapid adjustments have made forward planning difficult and reduced buying confidence among American importers.

Sales of Style 4 kernel, a format largely destined for the US market, have been particularly weak, leading to stock carryover into the new season.

China Offers New Opportunities

On a more positive note, South Africa may gain a competitive edge in China. Under the China-Africa Economic Partnership Agreement, the previous 12% import duty on South African goods is set to be abolished.

If implemented smoothly, this could significantly improve South Africa’s position in the Chinese market, even in direct competition with Australia.

Currency Pressure

While global dollar prices are expected to remain relatively stable, the strengthening South African rand is likely to reduce producer revenues by approximately 15%. This adds further pressure to growers already managing uncertain export conditions.

Global Perspective: Gradual Demand Growth

Worldwide demand for macadamias continues to grow — but at a measured pace. Neither explosive expansion nor major contraction is expected in the near term.

• Australia is rebuilding supply after weather-driven setbacks.

• RSA remains the largest global supplier but faces trade policy and currency challenges.

• In future, China’s evolving trade framework could reshape export flows.

• The US market remains important but currently volatile due to trade policies.

The 2026 season reflects a broader theme in agriculture: production resilience must now be matched with trade agility.