CCI Nuts Market Update: Hazelnut

Firm Prices Expected as Türkiye Prepares for New Season. The global hazelnut market is entering an important period as Türkiye prepares for the 2026 harvest. With harvest approaching, buyers and manufacturers are closely watching crop quality, government pricing policies, brown marmorated stink bug damage, and export demand. While challenges remain, the overall outlook points to firm pricing and continued strong demand for Turkish hazelnuts.

Türkiye Remains the Centre of the Global Hazelnut Industry

Türkiye continues to dominate global hazelnut production and remains the world's most important supplier. Major food manufacturers, including Ferrero Group, which consumes approximately one-quarter of global hazelnut production, continue to rely heavily on Turkish origins despite increasing competition from Chile and the US.

Early estimates suggest the 2026 Turkish hazelnut crop could exceed 800,000 mt, indicating another healthy harvest if weather and pest damage remain manageable.

Türkiye Government Support Could Strengthen Prices

One of the biggest factors influencing the market over the coming months will be the purchasing policy of Turkey's Grain Board (TMO).

Market participants expect the TMO to announce its official purchase price in August. Reports that the agency is leasing additional warehouse capacity have fuelled expectations of significant government buying to help support growers and stabilise prices.

With speculation surrounding potential early elections in 2027, many local traders believe the government has strong incentives to maintain favourable producer prices in Turkish key hazelnut-growing regions.

Brown Marmorated Stink Bug Under Close Watch 🐞

Another major uncertainty remains the impact of the brown marmorated stink bug.

Although crop volume currently looks encouraging, detailed assessments of pest damage are expected later this month. Quality, rather than production volume alone, could become an important price driver if damage proves more widespread than currently anticipated.

Export Demand Shows Positive Momentum

Despite lower cumulative export volumes compared with last season, Turkish exporters have benefited from historically high prices.

Between September and June:

• Exports: ~169,500 mt

• Export value ~US$2.2 billion

• Average export price ~US$13/kg

While export volumes remain below last season, export values have remained remarkably resilient due to significantly stronger pricing.

June 2026 exports also showed encouraging momentum, a substantial improvement over June 2025, reflecting renewed buying activity as customers anticipate firmer prices.

EU Market Competition Continues

Competition for hazelnut supply to the European market has intensified.

Recent import statistics show Chile becoming the EU's largest hazelnut supplier by volume during the first half of 2026, while imports from the United States increased sharply. Turkish exporters are understandably concerned about increasing competition and new EU trade arrangements.

However, many exporters believe the impact on Turkey's premium processed hazelnut industry will be limited.

Turkey exports large volumes of roasted and value-added hazelnut products, which already benefit from favorable tariff treatment. Furthermore, major buyers such as Ferrero Group continue to maintain established sourcing programs within Turkey, supported by competitive logistics and consistent supply.

New Food Safety Regulations

Exporters are also preparing for upcoming European Union food safety requirements covering Mineral Oil Aromatic Hydrocarbons (MOAH).

From January 2027, new maximum residue levels will apply to tree nuts entering the EU. The Turkish industry is working to strengthen testing capability and improve packaging practices to ensure continued compliance with evolving international food safety standards.

CCI APAC Singapore supplies both natural hazelnut kernels as well as roasted and value-added hazelnut products, kernels, and paste.

Market Outlook

Current market fundamentals remain supportive.

Several factors are expected to underpin prices during the coming months:

• Strong global demand for Turkish hazelnuts

• Expected government market support through TMO purchasing

• Healthy but closely monitored crop development

• Continued demand from major international confectionery manufacturers

• Reduced pressure from exporter stock liquidation as financing conditions improve

Although competition from Chile and the US continues to increase, Turkey's established position in premium processed hazelnuts, combined with long-standing relationships with global buyers, should help maintain its importance within international supply chains.

What Buyers Should Watch

As the new season approaches, several developments will shape the hazelnut market:

• TMO's official purchase price announcement in August

• Brown marmorated stink bug damage assessments later in July

• Final harvest quality across Turkey's producing regions

• Continued export demand from Europe and global confectionery manufacturers

• Implementation of upcoming EU food safety regulations
  

Outlook

The overall outlook remains cautiously positive. While competition and regulatory changes present new challenges, healthy crop expectations, firm demand, government support measures, and continued purchasing by major international manufacturers are expected to keep Turkish hazelnut prices relatively firm as the 2026 harvest season begins.