CCI Nuts Market Update: Hazelnuts, Peanuts, Almonds, Apricots

Turkish apricots are running behind schedule, hazelnut crop estimates are all over the map, Indian peanut prices keep climbing on drought worries, and Spanish almond growers are bracing for heat damage.

Hazelnuts

Turkish crop estimates diverge sharply ahead of harvest. The official commission (Ministry of Agriculture, TMO, FİSKOBİRLİK and exchanges) is pointing to roughly 700,000 mt nationally, well under the Black Sea Hazelnuts Association's original 810,000 mt call - and the Association is expected to push its number past 800,000 mt regardless. Either way, it's a ~45% rebound from last year's frost-hit crop, with better quality and less stink-bug damage than feared.

That's put exporters in a buying mood, with new-crop offers already out (2026 crop, DAP Central Europe): natural 11-13mm at €7.30-7.80/kg, diced 2-4mm at €5.70-6.75/kg, meal at €5.00-5.82/kg, paste at €5.40-6.20/kg. Old-crop (2025) prices are fixed and slightly higher across the board.

Farmers, however, are sitting on their hands until the TMO sets its official base price - local free-market rates currently sit at TRY 170-210/kg ($3.59-4.43/kg) depending on region and quality. Producer groups are pushing for TRY 295-300/kg ($6.22-6.33/kg), though market chatter suggests the TMO lands closer to $5.00/kg. Separately, an updated field-inspection methodology (focused on kernel fill and pest damage rather than raw tree counts) is meant to give exporters a clearer read on exportable volume. EU hazelnut imports are up 16% year-to-date, led by a 38% surge from Chile, while Turkish-origin imports fell 19%.

Peanuts

India and Argentina are pulling in opposite directions. Gujarat, India's key growing state, is seeing sown acreage down 35-40% on drought and farmers switching to cotton and soybeans, which has pushed prices up through July. Government stockpiles (~600,000-625,000 mt) are expected to cap any near-term spike. Meanwhile Argentina's harvest is running two-plus weeks late due to wet weather, hurting yield and quality, and Brazil's harvest came in lower than expected too - both of which reduce competition for Indian exporters.

Traders see it going either way from here: a poor Gujarat monsoon plus an Indonesian import-quota release could add another 10% to prices, but current levels are already pricing Indian oil mills out of the export market, which could trigger a correction instead. FOB India, Bold 40-50 (non-EU) sits at $1,280/mt, up from $1,270/mt two weeks prior.

Almonds

Spain's brutal summer heat and wildfires are clouding the outlook for this year's crop, even though industry groups had initially forecast production up 7% to 135,230 mt. Fires in Andalucía (fueled by this spring's rain growth turned tinder-dry) and the Castellón blaze are blocking growers from orchard maintenance, adding uncertainty to that estimate.

On the export side, May was strong - 12,523 mt shipped, up 16% year-on-year - though season-to-date exports are still down 4% at 130,161 mt. Western Europe (France, Germany, Italy) remains the core market but all three are down versus last year, while the standout is the US, where shipments have more than tripled (1,100 mt to 3,746 mt). Dried Apricots

The new-crop season was due to open August 1, but a stretch of fruit hasn't finished drying, so a 7-10 day delay is now expected. Malatya's weather (34-36°C days, cool nights) is otherwise ideal for drying, and harvesting has pushed into the higher-altitude orchards while lower areas wrap up. Growers expect fresh-apricot exports to run through end-August, targeting 10,000 mt, mostly bound for Europe.

New-crop pricing won't be announced until early August, and with essentially no old-crop stock left to export, buyers are anticipating a sharp opening followed by a settling-down once fresh supply arrives. Year-to-date exports are running far below last season - 29,168 mt through July 25 versus 73,922 mt a year earlier, roughly a 60% drop. Malatya Commodity Exchange president Ramazan Özcan attributes the slow start to unusually cold nights delaying the harvest by about ten days.

Indicative F.O.B. Mersin prices (2,000 ppm) held steady: No 2 at $10,300/mt, No 4 at $9,550/mt, No 6 at $8,800/mt, No 8 at $8,050/mt.

CCI APAC supplies wholesale tree nuts and dried fruits as per customer specifications.

1 USD ~ 47.4 TRY 1 USD ~ 0.87 Euro 1 USD ~ 95 INR