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CCI Nuts: Almond updates - November 2021

Global almond crop of the marketing season 2021/2022 has declined 8% to 1,598,900 tons. The weak October export figures from California have started worrying exporters. Many buyers have taken the precaution of stocking up, and the rising Coronavirus cases are not easing the market situation. Therefore, in order to reduce almond stocks, sellers are decreasing prices further. According to recent reports, California, SSR, 23/25, natural almond offers have fallen by €0.35/kg to €4.8/kg FCA Spain within 2 weeks. At the end of September, they were still at €5.60/kg FCA after high export figures from USA in the summer months had pushed prices up (around 9% price drop over few months).

Many global buyers had taken the precaution of stocking up on plenty of almonds during the summer months so as not to risk shortages for the Christmas/New Year season. Many have experienced delivery delays this year due to the supply-chain challenges caused by the COVID19, and a smaller US crop was also forecast. Accordingly, the spot markets are currently well stocked. There is no talk of a shortage; instead, buyer restraint is now causing prices to come under pressure both at origin and in the European spot markets. Delivery delays and cancellations are likely to accompany international trade for quite some time. Traders want to increase sales through lower prices in order not to carry-over a disproportionate amount of goods into the 2022/2023 season. The Australian almond crop has increased around 8% to 124,000 tons. The spring and winter months saw a good rainfall and increased valuable water reserves. Furthermore, the pollination phase went well and nuts remaining on the plantations from last year were removed particularly thoroughly to reduce potential pests infestation and hatching.

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