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CCI Nuts market update: Tree Nuts

Updated: Jul 10

I. US Pistachio Shipments Still Going Strong


Year-to-date US pistachio exports have surged by 56% to a record 783 million pounds compared to the 2022/2023 period, as reported by APC. Domestic YTD shipments have risen by a more moderate 3% to 191 million pounds, lifting total pistachio shipments to 974 million pounds, a 42% increase over the previous season.

China is the primary export destination for US pistachios this season, with shipments to China more than doubling. Shipments to Germany have seen similar growth, while exports to Turkey remain relatively flat. While US shipments to nearly all top ten export destinations show impressive growth, India is displaying a noted decline, and shipments to Hong Kong have seen a slight decrease. With only two months remaining in the season, the estimated marketable inventory stands at 440 million pounds.

Global Production Estimated to Rise

Initial projections for the US crop ranged from 1.10 to 1.30 billion pounds in May. This was reflected in the figures presented at the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) Congress in Vancouver, which predict a 26% slump in US production as the country enters an off-year. Some speculate that the crop may fall below the 1 billion-pound (~450,000 mt) threshold. The problem is the chill hours, which may not have been sufficient. Pistachio harvesting will also start a bit later. Many US suppliers are holding on to their stocks from last year’s crop as inventories become tighter. With harvesting starting later and the Chinese New Year celebrated slightly earlier at the end of January 2025, demand and prices are expected to range particularly high in September and October.

Turkey is poised to more than double its pistachio production to 400,000 mt, thereby displacing Iran from the second position. Iran’s production is expected to rise by 11% this year to 200,000 metric tons.

Global Pistachio Production, In-Shell Basis (mt)

Country

2023/24

  2024/25

Change

USA

677,830

  499,400

  -26.3%

Turkey

180,000

  400,000

  122.2%

Iran

180,000

  200,000

  11.1%

Prices Decrease in Iran

With the new season approaching fast, prices have slumped to new lows in Iran. Although pistachios have become a controversial issue in recent years due to water shortages, no unusual weather events have been reported this year. As rain is scarce and surface water in short supply, farmers are digging more wells to pump water from valuable underground resources, an unregulated and often illegal practice.

II. Global Production Estimates for Cashews Slip Below the 5 Million Metric Tons Mark

Are the INC Estimates Too Optimistic?


Recent crop estimates indicate that the figures released for raw cashew nuts (RCN) at INC Vancouver in May were too optimistic. While the INC projected a 9% decline in global production to 5.1 million mt in 2024/2025 compared to 5.4 million mt in 2023/2024, this figure has now slid below the 5 million mt threshold. The main driver is the production slump in Ivory Coast. According to the most recent crop forecast issued by the Ivory Coast Cotton and Cashew Council at the start of June, production will slump by 25% to 1 million mt due to the El Nino weather phenomenon bringing adverse weather conditions. Weather conditions have also been far from ideal in Nigeria and Vietnam, where production took a 20% hit. Interestingly, Cocoa beans production slump in Ivory Coast has caused bean prices to reach historical highs! Higher cocoa bean prices should favour more cheaper nuts usage in chocolate bars and cookies.

Although Cambodia was also affected by hot weather, the country is in a more favorable position. An increase in the area under cultivation enabled production to grow by 5% to 716,000 mt between January to May. The country is now filling the gap as RCN exports to Vietnam have soared by 37%. India faced mixed weather conditions, labor shortages, and rising input costs, which have weighed on production, as reported by local media. Harvesting has now been completed in the Northern Hemisphere and will start in September in the Southern Hemisphere.

Global Raw Cashew Nut (RCN) Production Estimates (mt)

Country

2023/24

2024/25

Change

Côte D’Ivoire

1,335,000

1,000,000

-25%

Cambodia

680,000

716,000

  5.3%

India

765,000

690,000

  -9.8%

Nigeria

360,000

330,000

  -8.3%

Vietnam

400,000

320,000

  -20.0%

Guinea-Bissau

270,000

270,000

  0.0%

Benin

250,000

243,000

  -2.8%

Ghana

250,000

230,000

  -8.0%

Burkina Faso

160,000

145,000

  -9.4%

Guinea Conakry

160,000

160,000

  0.0%

Togo

120,000

110,000

  -8.3%

Senegal

100,000

100,000

  0.0%

Tanzania

260,000

260,000

  0.0%

Brazil

117,800

117,800

  0.0%

Mozambique

90,000

90,000

  0.0%

Indonesia

80,000

80,000

  0.0%

Cashew kernels are trading in a remarkably firm range in India, showing a minor upward trend in recent weeks. Prices typically decline with the arrival of the new crop, but current quotations are higher than last year. There are rumors in the market that packers are defaulting on their contracts due to a scarcity of affordable raw cashew nuts.

III. Hazelnuts: Price wars between the TMO and Buyers

Turkish Grain Board (TMO) and Buyers Stir Irritation


With only 2 months left until the start of the new season, many intriguing developments are occurring in the market. The Turkish Lira recently hit a new all-time low of 33.06 against the USD, and the TMO is stirring new irritation. Some estimates suggest that the TMO may still hold up to 100,000 mt of hazelnuts, and stakeholders are impatiently waiting for these stocks to be sold before the arrival of the new crop. However, the TMO is currently only selling the 2022 crop at a high price of TRY 127/kg, whereas market prices for the 2023 crop are around TRY 115/kg. As recently as March, Olam Food Ingredients (ofi – the buyer of Progida Group) bid TRY 135/kg for standard in-shell hazelnuts.

Hazelnut prices have softened due to extremely low demand, giving exporters problems. In anticipation of further price drops, large European buyers prefer to wait. Their desired price level for raw 11-13 mm hazelnut kernels is EUR 6.00-6.50/kg (USD 6.45-6.99/kg), which suppliers are not yet prepared to accept. The good news is that the new crop prospects appear optimistic, with no significant crop damage reported so far.

CBRT Retains 50% Interest Rate

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) kept the key interest rate steady at 50% last week, in line with expectations. The bank confirmed that it would not cut rates until a sustained decline in inflation is observed. Geopolitical risks and food prices are, however, boosting inflationary pressures. Inflation exceeded 75% in May. Exchange rates have improved against the US dollar in recent days.

USD 1 = 32.72 Turkish lira

Azerbaijan's Hazelnut Exports Increase in the First 5 Months of 2024

In the first five months of 2024, Azerbaijan exported 7,739 tons of hazelnuts, generating a revenue of $47,458,000, based on data from the Azerbaijan State Customs Committee. Compared to the same period last year, the export value of hazelnuts increased by 13%, and the export volume grew by about 30%.

The average export price for 1 kg of hazelnuts in the first five months of 2024 was $6.13, reflecting 24% increase from the average price during the same period last year, which was $4.93/kg.

When you have requirements for tree nuts and dried fruits (Organic or conventional), please let us know. #hazelnut #pistachio #greenPeeledKernels #almonds #cashew #ピスタチオ #ヘーゼルナッツ


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